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Defensive Investing

Posted by SeanW on April 16, 2003 at 11:29 AM

In Reply to: Feasible? How will it affect us foreclosure specialists? posted by Alfred -- Riv County, CA on April 16, 2003 at 10:46 AM

Even FDIC insurance will be worthless if all those things happen at once. I've been kinda bearish on things for a while, but I thought the stock market was overvalued in 1995, so what do I know?

My take is, he's essentially right that all of those things need to be resolved and some of them simply cannot continue much longer.

However, in spite of everything, you need to do something with assets if you have them. I'd rather have real estate than gold or diamonds. They must be stored and protected, and when you use them, exchanged for... somthing.

Real estate can't be destroyed (exept in extreme cases) and if you're buying foreclosures, you're getting it below market.... whereever the market is. Hard to buy any other commodity "below", because the market telegraphs pretty well to both buyer and seller what the going price is. Try buying a stock for less than the NYSE quote. Or a car less than blue book.

I think the retail customer is insane to buy RE at today's levels. But most people just think "monthly payment". They don't look as hard at how the rate inflates the asset.

Lots of people in CA learned this the hard way in 1989-1991. But I suppose they all just moved away, or figure it just can't happen again. Americans are an optimistic bunch. We don't like to think the future can be worse than today.


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