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More to it than war

Posted by SeanW on April 12, 2003 at 7:24 AM

In Reply to: WAR posted by Tim on April 12, 2003 at 4:21 AM

I'd say people buy or don't buy based on many factors. The buyer's market has continued in a weak economy because:

(1) Rates are at 40 year lows
(2) People are not comfortable investing in stocks after watching their 401-ks drop for 3 years
(3) In southern Cal, scarcity of housing
(4) "Everyone" thinks RE is a good investment b/c it's been going up for 7 years, and it's "obviously" a "safer" investment.

(And I'd add that although job growth has been weak, we haven't seen the kind of massive unemployment spike (7% to 10%) that occurred in previous recessions. People with jobs will usually have enough confidence in their future to buy a house, and they can usually get financing somewhere.)

You might even see the buyer's market go through one last hurrah late this year in CA, if people sense rates are about to rise and it's their last chance to get in.

But the economy is fundamentally cyclical, and everything that goes up.... must.... eventually.....


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